Do yourself a favor and do not fight it!

We are in a strong equity bull market and the stronger the market gets, the more angry the bears become. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen Demark sequential indicator posted by the bears who tried calling the top over the last year or two. It’s just silly.

Everytime the market makes new all time highs the top pickers come out of the caves and literally start throwing money away. Sure, one of the future all time highs will become the top, but do you have enough money to survive untill we get there?

Maybe my post is marking the top, maybe not, time will tell. No one knows, not me nor you. But I would say, based on all the evidence, we still have quite some upside left. There are more and more markets participating in this bullish trend, which is a sign of strength, not weakness. Nadaljuj z branjem “Do yourself a favor and do not fight it!”

Do you like cocoa? I do. A lot!

Not sure if you are aware of butter products’ shortages in Europe lately, but because of very high demand and reduced supply prices are surging. It feels that financial experts are too busy calling a top in stocks and are missing, in my mind, one of the biggest macro stories of the next couple of years.

What if we start seeing something similar in other softs and agricultures? What if prices of other food products start surging too? I think this could have some serious effects on the real economy.

I will let other people discuss potential effects, but let me rather focus on where prices might go and what you could do about it.

Nadaljuj z branjem “Do you like cocoa? I do. A lot!”

Dollar to catch a bid?

Is the dollar about to turn just when everyone got excited with their shorts? We’ve seen an amazing selloff in the last couple of months, and while I still believe we are in the beginning of a major bear market [please see more here], I would not be surprised if we see a corrective rally from the current levels. This would also fit well into gold story discussed in the last post. Nadaljuj z branjem “Dollar to catch a bid?”

Oil breaking higher through important trendlines

There is more and more evidence that energies might rally in the end of this year and so many people could be caught on the wrong side of the trade. Not only retail community but also professionals are saying oil has to go down. We can see something similar in COT positioning as well. This reminds me of gold bugs, but in energy we have energy bears and their narratives. It’s fascinating!

I wrote a post about oil a month ago. I advise you to read it (see here) before you continue with this post to gain a perspective. Therefore I won’t go into everything again but rather expose the technical picture. Nadaljuj z branjem “Oil breaking higher through important trendlines”

But aren’t bonds supposed to only go up?

I would like to start with my tweet from earlier today.

Are they? Or is just the cycle long enough so that the people forgot that bonds might also fall and interest rates rise over time?

Nadaljuj z branjem “But aren’t bonds supposed to only go up?”

Is DAX30 getting ready to rip higher?

I’ve expressed my bias in the stock market with my past few posts. Please read in my past post my observations that’s so interesting to see the eagerness to be bearish and pessimistic and call the market top. So I think there is no need to bore you with this again and let’s go straight into the charts.

My main question today is, can DAX30 rip higher into everyone’s face in the next couple of months? Take a look at the weekly chart of DAX. Nadaljuj z branjem “Is DAX30 getting ready to rip higher?”

Why are you so pessimistic?

There is so much pessimism in the market right now and it’s so hard to escape from it. It feels that if one is not bearish, then he must be missing something or he is just a blind bull. I know, there are problems in the world. But was there a time when everything was rosy?

Anyway, today I would like to write a post around a tweet of mine that brought quite a lot of attention. I wrote about the same topic on June the 3rd [1] and now I would like to add few thoughts to challenge you by asking what if we are in the first stage of a multi decade long bull market, similar to the ones that started in early 50s or 80s? Nadaljuj z branjem “Why are you so pessimistic?”

Could oil trade to $60 or above? I think so

It is so interesting to me to observe sentiment in the market and how people interpret the data available to them. I grew up massaging the data and presenting it using various statistical methods. One of the reasons I love stats is that one can derive to two totally different stories having the same data so it’s very easy to show what one wants to show but on the other hand it’s just as easy to see only the things one want to see.

In this post let me present you some oil related facts by how I see it and I hope I will be able to present it from the most neutral stance possible.  Nadaljuj z branjem “Could oil trade to $60 or above? I think so”

A repeat of 1995 or years that end with 7 pattern?

I didn’t write about the stock market for a while now and there is a good reason for that, there is nothing new – the market is still in a bull trend. So far there is little evidence to suggest this bull run is ending, but on the other hand I’m sure you’ve heard about the quote ‘risk happens fast’. So everyone is probably wondering what to do going forward.

In this post let me show you the pattern of the years that end with 7 as well as why this market is so similar to the market in 1995. Nadaljuj z branjem “A repeat of 1995 or years that end with 7 pattern?”

Gold, can you use this opportunity?

More than two and a half months ago I published a post about gold where I discussed that it is not time for gold to shine yet. I was right, gold sold off pretty aggressively but couldn’t continue even though it had every chance to do so. This kind of fake breakouts can usually lead to even stronger breakouts but usually in the other direction. So, can gold use this opportunity to break out of this 5-6 long bear market and start an epic rally?

In this post let me present what would have to happen in order for gold to become one of the most wanted assets in the world again. Nadaljuj z branjem “Gold, can you use this opportunity?”

Unloved soft commodities

I would like to present you a very interesting setup in soft commodities I am observing for a while now. I wrote about COT positioning already, so a frequent reader should be familiar with the term and how to read it. This time there is an extreme imbalance in hedge fund and producer positioning in sugar, cocoa, coffee and orange juice while the price of each sits at very low levels. Nadaljuj z branjem “Unloved soft commodities”