… if I use the words of Mark Yusko and make them a bit more general. Not that I don’t believe in bitcoin, but I think the whole asset class is here to stay and disrupt. Possibly big time!
While a lot of people are saying bitcoin is a scam, one should buy puts on every crypto, and while there are many ICO frauds, I am not so sure about the negative outcome for the asset class as a whole. I don’t want to go over all the reasons why, but I think it has a lot to do with the same reasons as why the stocks are in a bullish trend, e.g. money is super cheap, we could be in the beginning of a secular bull trend (see my post from Sep17, Why are you so pessimistic?), etc.
But there is another one which could push the prices higher. Nadaljuj z branjem “Cryptos are big, really big!”
I will keep this blog post short. I do not want to get in the middle of the ‘one and only’ and the ‘shit’ coin arguments. No doubt about that Bitcoin had its moment, it was all over the place. People even started taking it as the only benchmark for your results, e.g. if your returns were lower than Bitcoin’s, then you suck, you are incompetent and what not. The arguments people were having, and still do, really got beyond good taste. But who am I to judge. Anyway, I don’t want to go there.
The main question I want to put out here is, can Bitcoin Cash (BCH) start to/continue rising? And, can it also outperform Bitcoin (BTC)? Nadaljuj z branjem “Can Bitcoin Cash (BCH) start shining?”
Sometimes it’s really hard to write a post about a topic I wrote so many times before. I’ve just recently posted an update on the USD view focusing on the EURUSD pair. Even though I am writing about the pound sterling today it goes hand in hand with the bearish US dollar thesis because the cable is arguably the most important GBP pair.
Two weeks ago I tweeted “Anyone else thinks this is likely? $GBPUSD” suggesting that I am expecting a resolution higher in price. Nadaljuj z branjem “The bullish pound sterling?”
I guess they could go into a panic mode and it could get ugly! In this case I would not want to stand in their way, but I would rather use the opportunity, run behind them and press the bears even more.
As you know, I am a long-term US dollar bear, I wrote about my views many times before. Two months ago I wrote a post about an expected ST correction in the dollar (or in FX pairs against the dollar). We did get it, but in EURUSD not as deep as I have been expecting. Which is not bad if you ask me, just shows how strong EUR really is. Or if one wants to put it differently, it shows how hard it is for USD to catch a bid. Nadaljuj z branjem “What happens if you trap some bears ahead of the winter?”
In the last couple of months Bitcoin took all the spotlight and it was well deserved. Man, the run Bitcoin had was probably unthinkable even by the most wild crypto bulls. While it still could run higher, maybe a lot higher, it could be time for Ether to take the turn and outperform.
Why not, we’ve seen a crazy rally in Bitcoin, a pause therefore wouldn’t be surprising and it wasn’t uncommon for them to take turns. On the other hand Ether is consolidating early 2017 gains for approximately 5 months now, but what’s nice is that it recovered very well after yesterday’s negative news and the bulls were able to reclaim $300 level and as of writing it’s trying to reclaim a very important $310 level.
From the chart below we can see that the last time ETH/USD rallied was alongside the ratio ETH/BTC or in other words in time of ETH’s outperformance. Similar happened in early 2016 too! Nadaljuj z branjem “Time for Ethereum’s turn?”
I am enjoying my time on holidays now and I wasn’t planning to post much in the next two weeks. But the trading idea I will present in this post very briefly is one of the things that just can’t go unnoticed.
Currency pair CADCHF is one of the products that respected technicals so beautifully it’s hard to describe it with words so please take a look at the next chart. Nadaljuj z branjem “Can technicals get any better than this?”
Is the dollar about to turn just when everyone got excited with their shorts? We’ve seen an amazing selloff in the last couple of months, and while I still believe we are in the beginning of a major bear market [please see more here], I would not be surprised if we see a corrective rally from the current levels. This would also fit well into gold story discussed in the last post. Nadaljuj z branjem “Dollar to catch a bid?”
More than two and a half months ago I published a post about gold where I discussed that it is not time for gold to shine yet. I was right, gold sold off pretty aggressively but couldn’t continue even though it had every chance to do so. This kind of fake breakouts can usually lead to even stronger breakouts but usually in the other direction. So, can gold use this opportunity to break out of this 5-6 long bear market and start an epic rally?
In this post let me present what would have to happen in order for gold to become one of the most wanted assets in the world again. Nadaljuj z branjem “Gold, can you use this opportunity?”
Since I last wrote about the US dollar [see here], the DXY index fell by approximately 300 pips. The dollar is now approaching probably the most important support zone in this selloff and bulls would say that the final leg higher is yet to come. While I am a more inclined towards a weak dollar with DXY at 70 or lower over time, I understand bulls’ arguments and I can see the case they are advocating. In this post let me present what would have to happen to make me revise my bear thesis to potentially change my mind and become a bull again.
Let me start with the DXY index and the support zone I mentioned earlier. One should clearly see it from my tweet I posted a few days ago. One could easily say that a correction is due, bears might also argue that a correction would be healthy.. but the real question, if you ask me, is not if a correction is healthy but how deep correction is still healthy and what is a level where a bear should get worried. Nadaljuj z branjem “Dollar bears do not want to see a (deep) correction!”
Bitcoin was a great story so far. There was a proper euphoria with comments like “bitcoin price can only go up” and similar, expectations were high and everyone thought trading cryptos or doing some kind of business in the field is like a walk in the park. It seems that this is slowly but surely ending, at least for now; it was sweet while lasted.
When everyone I know, who by the way are everything but experts in financial markets, talk about it, is time to get worried. So let me start with showing you my tweet from 3 weeks ago and continue with a tweet from this Friday. Nadaljuj z branjem “Bitcoin watch out below”
I published a series of posts and tweets about the dollar in the past, but didn’t write a more extensive one recently. I was thinking to write a longer post for a while now, but a) just didn’t find time to do it and b) thought we are set for a correction after the selloff in the last half a year or so, so I thought there is no rush with presenting a bearish case. Anyway.. now I think we might not even get a correction yet in this it seems to be the first stage of a major long-term dollar bear market. Nadaljuj z branjem “The king dollar set to disappoint?”
In the latest weekly overview I wrote EURUSD is a hot mess. Price action this week confirms the ‘hot mess’ theme. EURUSD contributes the biggest weight in the US dollar index and thus we could say DXY is a hot mess as well.
DXY is trading at an important technical level right now and now is the time for bulls to show if they have any power left to move the price higher! Nadaljuj z branjem “Real test for US dollar bulls!”