I guess it’s needless to say that I am a commodities bull. After all, even if you haven’t followed my blog regularly, you can tell this from my last post. This doesn’t mean that the price of commodities will only go up. There will be short-term cycles with corrections, even very quick ones, to shake the excessive excitement. Similar to what we see in cryptos today. This is just normal market behavior.
While gold didn’t get much of an appreciation lately, it had a very decent year. But I think it was only a beginning. I think gold could easily double or triple in the months to come. Nadaljuj z branjem “The shiny metal and its miners”
No, I don’t think we are there yet, I don’t think there is a recession imminent just yet as some are suggesting. On the contrary, there are some great things happening right now, some trends are just starting. For instance, electric vehicles sector is just about to take off and bullish oil could just speed up the whole process.
And as you may know, copper is a key element of every electric component because it’s a great conductor. If we assume that a recession is not imminent and among other electrification EV sector is just starting to take off then it is fair to say that demand for copper should pick up too, right? Nadaljuj z branjem “EVs to drive copper prices higher?”
I guess they could go into a panic mode and it could get ugly! In this case I would not want to stand in their way, but I would rather use the opportunity, run behind them and press the bears even more.
As you know, I am a long-term US dollar bear, I wrote about my views many times before. Two months ago I wrote a post about an expected ST correction in the dollar (or in FX pairs against the dollar). We did get it, but in EURUSD not as deep as I have been expecting. Which is not bad if you ask me, just shows how strong EUR really is. Or if one wants to put it differently, it shows how hard it is for USD to catch a bid. Nadaljuj z branjem “What happens if you trap some bears ahead of the winter?”
In the last couple of months Bitcoin took all the spotlight and it was well deserved. Man, the run Bitcoin had was probably unthinkable even by the most wild crypto bulls. While it still could run higher, maybe a lot higher, it could be time for Ether to take the turn and outperform.
Why not, we’ve seen a crazy rally in Bitcoin, a pause therefore wouldn’t be surprising and it wasn’t uncommon for them to take turns. On the other hand Ether is consolidating early 2017 gains for approximately 5 months now, but what’s nice is that it recovered very well after yesterday’s negative news and the bulls were able to reclaim $300 level and as of writing it’s trying to reclaim a very important $310 level.
From the chart below we can see that the last time ETH/USD rallied was alongside the ratio ETH/BTC or in other words in time of ETH’s outperformance. Similar happened in early 2016 too! Nadaljuj z branjem “Time for Ethereum’s turn?”
I am enjoying my time on holidays now and I wasn’t planning to post much in the next two weeks. But the trading idea I will present in this post very briefly is one of the things that just can’t go unnoticed.
Currency pair CADCHF is one of the products that respected technicals so beautifully it’s hard to describe it with words so please take a look at the next chart. Nadaljuj z branjem “Can technicals get any better than this?”
Not sure if you are aware of butter products’ shortages in Europe lately, but because of very high demand and reduced supply prices are surging. It feels that financial experts are too busy calling a top in stocks and are missing, in my mind, one of the biggest macro stories of the next couple of years.
What if we start seeing something similar in other softs and agricultures? What if prices of other food products start surging too? I think this could have some serious effects on the real economy.
I will let other people discuss potential effects, but let me rather focus on where prices might go and what you could do about it.
Nadaljuj z branjem “Do you like cocoa? I do. A lot!”
I’ve expressed my bias in the stock market with my past few posts. Please read in my past post my observations that’s so interesting to see the eagerness to be bearish and pessimistic and call the market top. So I think there is no need to bore you with this again and let’s go straight into the charts.
My main question today is, can DAX30 rip higher into everyone’s face in the next couple of months? Take a look at the weekly chart of DAX. Nadaljuj z branjem “Is DAX30 getting ready to rip higher?”
It is so interesting to me to observe sentiment in the market and how people interpret the data available to them. I grew up massaging the data and presenting it using various statistical methods. One of the reasons I love stats is that one can derive to two totally different stories having the same data so it’s very easy to show what one wants to show but on the other hand it’s just as easy to see only the things one want to see.
In this post let me present you some oil related facts by how I see it and I hope I will be able to present it from the most neutral stance possible. Nadaljuj z branjem “Could oil trade to $60 or above? I think so”
More than two and a half months ago I published a post about gold where I discussed that it is not time for gold to shine yet. I was right, gold sold off pretty aggressively but couldn’t continue even though it had every chance to do so. This kind of fake breakouts can usually lead to even stronger breakouts but usually in the other direction. So, can gold use this opportunity to break out of this 5-6 long bear market and start an epic rally?
In this post let me present what would have to happen in order for gold to become one of the most wanted assets in the world again. Nadaljuj z branjem “Gold, can you use this opportunity?”
I published a series of posts and tweets about the dollar in the past, but didn’t write a more extensive one recently. I was thinking to write a longer post for a while now, but a) just didn’t find time to do it and b) thought we are set for a correction after the selloff in the last half a year or so, so I thought there is no rush with presenting a bearish case. Anyway.. now I think we might not even get a correction yet in this it seems to be the first stage of a major long-term dollar bear market. Nadaljuj z branjem “The king dollar set to disappoint?”
Let me highlight few trade ideas I tweeted recently. So let me share them with you with reposting them here… Nadaljuj z branjem “Few trade ideas”
Last weak gold was trying to break its famous multi-month long resistance trendline (see below) and many gold bulls/bugs were getting excited. Over a long term I think gold is a great store of value, but in short term I wouldn’t be surprised if it sells off from current price levels. Nadaljuj z branjem “Gold might not be ready to rally just yet”