Since I last wrote about the US dollar [see here], the DXY index fell by approximately 300 pips. The dollar is now approaching probably the most important support zone in this selloff and bulls would say that the final leg higher is yet to come. While I am a more inclined towards a weak dollar with DXY at 70 or lower over time, I understand bulls’ arguments and I can see the case they are advocating. In this post let me present what would have to happen to make me revise my bear thesis to potentially change my mind and become a bull again.
Let me start with the DXY index and the support zone I mentioned earlier. One should clearly see it from my tweet I posted a few days ago. One could easily say that a correction is due, bears might also argue that a correction would be healthy.. but the real question, if you ask me, is not if a correction is healthy but how deep correction is still healthy and what is a level where a bear should get worried. Nadaljuj z branjem “Dollar bears do not want to see a (deep) correction!”
Bitcoin was a great story so far. There was a proper euphoria with comments like “bitcoin price can only go up” and similar, expectations were high and everyone thought trading cryptos or doing some kind of business in the field is like a walk in the park. It seems that this is slowly but surely ending, at least for now; it was sweet while lasted.
When everyone I know, who by the way are everything but experts in financial markets, talk about it, is time to get worried. So let me start with showing you my tweet from 3 weeks ago and continue with a tweet from this Friday. Nadaljuj z branjem “Bitcoin watch out below”
Probably you’ve seen this chart few times in the last couple of weeks saying that S&P500 is expensive vs to commodities. Well, don’t go and just buy a random commodity… for example, as I wrote, I am expecting gold price to fall. But on the other hand it seems European energies could rally and let me present what I see. Nadaljuj z branjem “European energies”
I would like to start with my tweet I posted 10 days ago.
So far this has been a great call. Before continuing, please read my past post about gold here, where I discuss that gold price is likely to trade lower.
Now, back to bonds. Nadaljuj z branjem “Sell bonds and buy micro-caps”
Had you asked me a few months ago what do I think where oil might go, being quite a vocal bear, I’d say that the only way is down. Even when WTI was breaking above 52.00 USD/bbl level and hedge funds have built a record long position, I was very pessimistic about that and as expected the move was short-lived. But recently I became less bearish. In this post let me present what I see right now.. Nadaljuj z branjem “USDCAD pointing to crude oil rally”
S&P 500 rallied and finished strong this week as anticipated. I wrote about the necessary help from broader market participation in last week’s post, and we got it. But what next? Let me present you arguments for and against this rally and what to look for going forward. Nadaljuj z branjem “S&P 500 approaching an important resistance… Is this rally about to end or continue?”
This week SPX closed at all time highs and it broke above it’s 3 months trading range. New all time highs is a characteristic we see in bull trends. Now the question is, can we see this move to be extended or rejected. In this post I would like to show you constructive signs based on DJTA, equally weighted SPX and XLF ETF. Nadaljuj z branjem “S&P 500 needs help from broader market participation”
This week I would like to write about Brazil and it’s stock market. Most of you are probably aware, that the market opened with a nasty gap down of around -17% on Thursday the 18th of May. I was long EWZ, Brazilian ETF and of course I was down on this position that day. I decided to close my position with no hesitation. Let me write about this position and what can one learn from it. Nadaljuj z branjem “Brazil’s plunge and what can we learn from it?”
Mentioned products: ED, SPX, EEM, EWZ, EXY,
This weekly overview I’d like to dedicate to Eurodollar bond futures and emerging markets. Few weeks ago I wrote that bonds could move higher (the opposite is true for rates); at that time I wrote about TLT which is probably one of the most general bond products. Nadaljuj z branjem “Eurodollars & emerging markets to rip higher?”
Mentioned products: SPX, EuroStoxx, DAX30, CAC40, IBEX35, MIB40, GREK, EURGBP
I would like to dedicate this week’s weekly overview to Europe and French election because it’s quite important event for global political and economic situation and therefore for financial markets as well.
My question this week is, can Le Pen win and what are markets telling us? Nadaljuj z branjem “Can Le Pen win & could European equities start outperforming?”
Mentioned products: SPX, RUT, NDX, SX5E, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CL, RBS
It’s so hard to write something really exciting in the equity indices space right now. Sure, I think we can expect another move higher some time, but are we first on a course to fill those nasty gaps with some choppy action? There are few proofs which could back this thesis. Nadaljuj z branjem “Weekly overview 30.04.2017”
Mentioned products: SPX, RUT, NI225, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURUSD, GC, CL, NG, BABA Nadaljuj z branjem “Weekly Overview 23.04.2017”