Do you like cocoa? I do. A lot!

Not sure if you are aware of butter products’ shortages in Europe lately, but because of very high demand and reduced supply prices are surging. It feels that financial experts are too busy calling a top in stocks and are missing, in my mind, one of the biggest macro stories of the next couple of years.

What if we start seeing something similar in other softs and agricultures? What if prices of other food products start surging too? I think this could have some serious effects on the real economy.

I will let other people discuss potential effects, but let me rather focus on where prices might go and what you could do about it.

Nadaljuj z branjem “Do you like cocoa? I do. A lot!”

Dollar to catch a bid?

Is the dollar about to turn just when everyone got excited with their shorts? We’ve seen an amazing selloff in the last couple of months, and while I still believe we are in the beginning of a major bear market [please see more here], I would not be surprised if we see a corrective rally from the current levels. This would also fit well into gold story discussed in the last post. Nadaljuj z branjem “Dollar to catch a bid?”

Oil breaking higher through important trendlines

There is more and more evidence that energies might rally in the end of this year and so many people could be caught on the wrong side of the trade. Not only retail community but also professionals are saying oil has to go down. We can see something similar in COT positioning as well. This reminds me of gold bugs, but in energy we have energy bears and their narratives. It’s fascinating!

I wrote a post about oil a month ago. I advise you to read it (see here) before you continue with this post to gain a perspective. Therefore I won’t go into everything again but rather expose the technical picture. Nadaljuj z branjem “Oil breaking higher through important trendlines”

But aren’t bonds supposed to only go up?

I would like to start with my tweet from earlier today.

Are they? Or is just the cycle long enough so that the people forgot that bonds might also fall and interest rates rise over time?

Nadaljuj z branjem “But aren’t bonds supposed to only go up?”

Is DAX30 getting ready to rip higher?

I’ve expressed my bias in the stock market with my past few posts. Please read in my past post my observations that’s so interesting to see the eagerness to be bearish and pessimistic and call the market top. So I think there is no need to bore you with this again and let’s go straight into the charts.

My main question today is, can DAX30 rip higher into everyone’s face in the next couple of months? Take a look at the weekly chart of DAX. Nadaljuj z branjem “Is DAX30 getting ready to rip higher?”

Why are you so pessimistic?

There is so much pessimism in the market right now and it’s so hard to escape from it. It feels that if one is not bearish, then he must be missing something or he is just a blind bull. I know, there are problems in the world. But was there a time when everything was rosy?

Anyway, today I would like to write a post around a tweet of mine that brought quite a lot of attention. I wrote about the same topic on June the 3rd [1] and now I would like to add few thoughts to challenge you by asking what if we are in the first stage of a multi decade long bull market, similar to the ones that started in early 50s or 80s? Nadaljuj z branjem “Why are you so pessimistic?”