I would like to present you a very interesting setup in soft commodities I am observing for a while now. I wrote about COT positioning already, so a frequent reader should be familiar with the term and how to read it. This time there is an extreme imbalance in hedge fund and producer positioning in sugar, cocoa, coffee and orange juice while the price of each sits at very low levels. Nadaljuj z branjem “Unloved soft commodities”
Since I last wrote about the US dollar [see here], the DXY index fell by approximately 300 pips. The dollar is now approaching probably the most important support zone in this selloff and bulls would say that the final leg higher is yet to come. While I am a more inclined towards a weak dollar with DXY at 70 or lower over time, I understand bulls’ arguments and I can see the case they are advocating. In this post let me present what would have to happen to make me revise my bear thesis to potentially change my mind and become a bull again.
Let me start with the DXY index and the support zone I mentioned earlier. One should clearly see it from my tweet I posted a few days ago. One could easily say that a correction is due, bears might also argue that a correction would be healthy.. but the real question, if you ask me, is not if a correction is healthy but how deep correction is still healthy and what is a level where a bear should get worried. Nadaljuj z branjem “Dollar bears do not want to see a (deep) correction!”
Bitcoin was a great story so far. There was a proper euphoria with comments like “bitcoin price can only go up” and similar, expectations were high and everyone thought trading cryptos or doing some kind of business in the field is like a walk in the park. It seems that this is slowly but surely ending, at least for now; it was sweet while lasted.
When everyone I know, who by the way are everything but experts in financial markets, talk about it, is time to get worried. So let me start with showing you my tweet from 3 weeks ago and continue with a tweet from this Friday. Nadaljuj z branjem “Bitcoin watch out below”
Probably you’ve seen this chart few times in the last couple of weeks saying that S&P500 is expensive vs to commodities. Well, don’t go and just buy a random commodity… for example, as I wrote, I am expecting gold price to fall. But on the other hand it seems European energies could rally and let me present what I see. Nadaljuj z branjem “European energies”
I would like to start with my tweet I posted 10 days ago.
So far this has been a great call. Before continuing, please read my past post about gold here, where I discuss that gold price is likely to trade lower.
Now, back to bonds. Nadaljuj z branjem “Sell bonds and buy micro-caps”